40 skippers set sail on Sunday for the 10th edition of the Vendée Globe. Tip & Shaft has enlisted the help of four of the event’s winners, Michel Desjoyeaux (2000 and 2008), Vincent Riou (2004), François Gabart (2012) and Armel Le Cléac’h (2016), as well as sailors Christopher Pratt and Franck Cammas, to assess the field.
Of the 40 Imoca boats in the running, including 13 new boats, “around ten can win and around twenty can finish on the the podium”, according to Christopher Pratt, who adds: “The density of the field is certainly unprecedented, and the level of preparation of the skippers and their machines is constantly improving, so we can expect boat speeds to increase and race times to decrease, if the weather cooperates.”
Vincent Riou agrees: “They’re prepared in a way that’s never been the case at the start of a Vendée, because the race for qualifying miles forced everyone to sail. What’s more, at the beginning of October, the Finistère ocean racing training center organized a 24-hour outing in over 30 knots and heavy seas. I didn’t think anyone would turn up, but they all did. You still need a certain level of confidence to go on a committed outing like that, ten days before the start for Les Sables.”
Although it was difficult for our experts to pinpoint a podium finish, in the end it was Charlie Dalin (Macif Santé Prévoyance) who came out on top by a narrow margin ahead of Yoann Richomme (Paprec Arkéa), followed by Jérémie Beyou (Charal), tied with Thomas Ruyant (Vulnerable).
“Charlie Dalin, the metronome”
“The one who ticks the most boxes is still Charlie Dalin,” says Vincent Riou. He still has a lot of energy and knows the event without having taken part many times [second participation, 2nd in 2021], which is an important point, as it’s a race that wears you out.” What’s more, the skipper from Le Havre, winner of this year’s New York Vendée and Défi Azimut, and of the Fastnet Race in 2023, can count on “a versatile boat [Plan Verdier to be launched in June 2023], very good at transitions, which enables him to get out of light wind zones a little more quickly than the others, which can be interesting on the way down or up the Atlantic”, stresses Armel Le Cléac’h.
According to Franck Cammas, “it’s not the most comfortable boat with the most margin in heavy seas downwind, and it will certainly have to take a few more risks to keep up the pace in the Antarctic, but Charlie is one of those with the most experience on this type of boat, he’s a metronome, he’s very rigorous and leaves nothing to chance.” François Gabart, who hosts the Le Havre-based sailor’s project within his MerConcept team, is very confident that “the boat is capable of going fast in southern conditions, even if this hasn’t yet been proven in racing, as Charlie was absent from the Transat Jacques Vabre and Retour à La Base [due to a medical problem].”
Second on our experts’ podium, Yoann Richomme “knows how to press hard, he has a very high pace and has proved he can win [winner of The Transat CIC and Retour à La Base], comments Franck Cammas. His level goes up a notch every time he goes solo.” Christopher Pratt adds that “his Imoca seems ideal for this race, especially for big sea states and downwind sailing.” Any weak points? “As the boat is a little heavy, she’s a little less at ease than some in light airs and transition phases,” he replies. And Franck Cammas adds that “the Koch designs have a weak point upwind.”
And if the two-time winner of the Solitaire du Figaro (2016 and 2019) and the Route du Rhum in Class40 (2018 and 2022) is a rookie on this Vendée Globe, Christopher Pratt considers that “this freshness can be an asset.” As for Michel Desjoyeaux, he believes that “the media-router exercise that Yoann did four years ago [notably for Tip & Shaft] was very clever because it allowed him to immerse himself in the logic of strategy. And with the experience he has in Figaro, I don’t see why he should have any problems over time.”
“He’s ready to go for this victory”
On the third step is Jérémie Beyou, 2nd in Retour à La Base and 3rd in the New York Vendée, who is about to race his fifth Vendée Globe (3rd in 2016-2017). He’s back “with a lot of experience, which is a great asset,” says Armel Le Cléac’h. And he’s got a boat with potential that he’s made reliable with a big team. After that, it’s all down to the mindset, because he has a mindset that can either help or hinder him, but I know he’s worked on it and that he’s ready to go for this victory.” For Franck Cammas, Jérémie Beyou’s co-skipper on the last Transat Jacques Vabre, “Jérémie has to keep his morale up to get through the difficult moments and technical problems, because he can take the blow a little harder than the others.”
The latter also praises the characteristics of his 2022 Manuard design, which “is a very good compromise for the Vendée Globe.” While Christopher Pratt, former co-skipper of Jérémie Beyou, confirms the performance of this Imoca, he points out that it “is also a little more complex than the others, with more systems, and therefore perhaps more demanding to sail well.”
Another big favorite is Thomas Ruyant, competing in his third Vendée Globe on a Koch-Finot-Conq (2023) design, who “doesn’t have the same racing profile as the previous three, according to Michel Desjoyeaux, but knows how to manage his race, go fast, keep up the pace and be technical enough to manage his equipment.” Franck Cammas praises Thomas’s “always positive spirit, which enables him to get back up the slope and stay in the game despite the difficulties.” For his part, François Gabart points out that the skipper from the north of France “excelled in double-handed racing, winning two Transat Jacques Vabre races with Morgan Lagravière, as well as the Route du Rhum, so I have few doubts about his talent as a sailor to perform solo on a round-the-world race.”
Ten other favorites on the list
Behind this quartet, our experts believe that several skippers are also capable of challenging for victory, such as Boris Herrmann (Malizia-SeaExplorer), 2nd in The Transat CIC and the New-York Vendée, who is returning to race his second Vendée Globe aboard a VPLP design “very comfortable downwind, which was tested in the southern seas in The Ocean Race”, according to Armel Le Cléac’h. Also mentioned is Sam Goodchild (Vulnerable), who has “a slightly older boat [a 2019 Verdier design] but which is still very efficient and can keep up without any problems”, according to Michel Desjoyeaux, who also mentions Sam Davies (Initiatives Coeur), 3rd in The Transat CIC and “back to her best”. Christopher Pratt, for his part, points to Nicolas Lunven (Holcim PRB) and Paul Meilhat (Biotherm) “who have boats that are a little less suited to heavy downwind seas, but who are super-solid skippers.”
For François Gabart, “it’s hard not to mention the previous winner, Yannick Bestaven (Maître CoQ), even if his latest results so far haven’t matched his previous Vendée Globe.” Other outsiders include Damien Seguin (Groupe Apicil), Justine Mettraux (Teamwork-Team Snef), Maxime Sorel (V and B-Monbana-Mayenne), Sébastien Simon (Groupe Dubreuil) and Louis Burton (Bureau Vallée).
As for the daggerboard Imocas, “if they were still able to compete a little with the foiling boats four years ago, this time they’re really going to be a long way ahead”, predicts Armel Le Cléac’h. Among them, “Jean Le Cam (Tout Commence en Finistère-Armor Lux) seems to have the best boat [2023 Raison design] and the most experience, even if we haven’t seen him sail yet”, notes Christopher Pratt. Benjamin Ferré (Monnoyeur-Duo for a job), Tanguy Le Turquais (Lazare) and Violette Dorange (Devenir) are also among the front-runners for daggerboard boats, with François Gabart reminding us that “the randomness and length of the exercise” mean that predictions are often foiled. Proof of this is the fact that Tip & Shaft ‘s top 5 experts in 2020 ranked Jérémie Beyou, Charlie Dalin, Thomas Ruyant, Alex Thomson and Kevin Escoffier in that order…
Our top 5 experts: 1. Charlie Dalin, 2. Yoann Richomme, 3. Jérémie Beyou and Thomas Ruyant, 5. Boris Herrmann.
Photo: Vincent Curutchet – Jean-Louis Carli / Alea
