For the duration of the Vendée Globe, Tip & Shaft will be decoding the weather and the trajectories of the 40 solo sailors, with Loïs Berrehar and Gaston Morvan, 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Solitaire du Figaro Paprec 2024, taking turns every other Friday. Loïs Berrehar is at the helm this Friday.
“Since the first sailor, Charlie Dalin, rounded the Cape of Good Hope just over a week ago, the situation has changed considerably, with the fleet stretched out and scattered into several larger and smaller groups, all of which have entered the southern oceans with a first big and impressive southern low. The stakes were particularly high at the head of the fleet, with two sailors, Charlie Dalin and Seb Simon, setting off on a very committed southerly trajectory.
Knowing a bit about the temperament of these guys – I did my first Solitaire du Figaro under the colors of Bretagne CMB Espoir the year Seb won with CMB Performance, and I was Charlie’s substitute skipper this year – I was moderately surprised to see them get off to a rough route like that. Now, I wouldn’t say I was worried about them, but I did wonder if they were going to make it, because it was a choice that involved a significant amount of risk of getting caught between the ice exclusion zone and the very strong winds that were pushing them towards it.
This meant that if they had the slightest problem, or if the winds were too strong to allow them to move forward as fast as they wanted, they would run a real risk of crossing this ice limit, as they really had no other way out. This had serious consequences for their race – the rule means you have to come out where you come in – but also for the integrity of the boat if you get too close to the ice, which must be nerve-wracking to live with this sword of Damocles hanging over your head. For example, early Friday afternoon, Charlie was less than 30 miles from the exclusion zone he was still aiming for, waiting for the wind to ease so he could finally put some north into his course (see satellite image below).
On the other hand, a northerly passage would have enabled us to measure the wind strength more accurately, and this route was potentially less risky, but in the end, I’m not sure that conditions were much better in the south; in any case, they weren’t any better in terms of sea state. Those to the north weren’t any better off, as the low-pressure system kicked up fairly heavy seas of over 6 metres.
Charlie and Seb aren’t out of the depression just yet, but now that the front has passed, they’ll find themselves downwind, more parallel to the ice zone, which means it’ll be easier to escape, downwind with a little angle, than upwind. In the next few hours, they’ll have stronger winds catching up with them, close to 40-45 knots, but they’ll be more serene in relation to this problem of the ice zone.
And above all, at the finish, both of them have done a much shorter route so if they can keep up this high pace, it will really pay off. It’s quite amazing to see the frantic pace Charlie has managed to maintain over the last few days on a boat which, on paper, seemed less suited to the Southern Ocean. Seb’s been stalled a bit, he’s been slowed down in the light airs in the center of the low, and I think he’s also had a few pilot problems, which means he’s now over 200 miles behind, whereas three days ago they were almost equal.
What’s certain is that they’ll be crossing well ahead of the guys to the north, especially as the latter will find themselves with a tailwind on their axis. I can see Charlie coming out of the next bump in the ice zone with a solid lead of over 500 miles over Yoann (see routing below), so in the end, if all goes well for Charlie and Seb, we’ll be able to say it’s a great coup! It must be hard for the latecomers, as we saw this morning on the videos of Jérémie Beyou and Nico Lunven, who are 300 miles behind Yoann and Thomas.
I even thought for a moment that they’d be caught by the group made up of Sam Goodchild, Yannick Bestaven and Paul Meilhat, which would have been a double whammy, but as the latter will have the wind more on the axis than them, I’m not sure they’ll make up that many miles.
Then, even if the models don’t quite agree – and I have the impression that the models aren’t very reliable in these far-off lands – there’s a high-pressure system across the route after Cape Leeuwin which could act as a new crossing before the arrival of a low-pressure system which deepens under Tasmania around December 10 or 11. If you have a 500-mile lead and manage to catch this low-pressure system, unlike your pursuers, you can really make a big difference. But it’s still uncertain, so we’ll have to wait and see early next week.
What’s certain is that this sequence in the Indian is difficult for all the sailors, who are suffering physically, as we can see from the images, but also nervously, with the constant risk of damaging the boat; in the conditions they’re encountering, a rudder that lifts, or a downwind start, can quickly have serious consequences. In fact, as we see with Louis Burton’s retirement and Eric Bellion’s and Kojiro Shiraishi’s torn sails, the equipment is beginning to suffer after almost a month at sea. I also have the impression that from the outset, they – or at least the leading boats – have set off in a mode that’s not very “Vendée Globe friendly”, they’re more on a Figaro rhythm, they haven’t had any real moments of respite. Even if the descent to Good Hope was straight ahead, it was clearly not a restful one, so you can see that the lines are drawn.
As for the group of daggerboard boats, too, they’ve entered the heart of the Deep South, with less at stake in the ice zone than I’ve described, but a good big low-pressure system, with up to 45-50 knots established and minimum 5-metre seas, which will pass over tomorrow. They’ll then benefit from milder conditions, before a new low in five days’ time, in relation to which they’ll have the opportunity to position themselves by staying to the north, so they shouldn’t find themselves in the sort of funnel Charlie and Seb are experiencing.”
Photo: Ronan Gladu/Macif Santé Prévoyance
