“Complicated management of arrivals” – Vendée Globe analysis by Gaston Morvan and Loïs Berrehar

For the duration of the Vendée Globe, Tip & Shaft brings you an analysis of the weather and the trajectories of the 40 solo sailors by Loïs Berrehar and Gaston Morvan, 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Solitaire du Figaro Paprec 2024, who take turns every other week. Gaston Morvan is at the helm this Friday for the penultimate chronicle of this Vendée Globe.

“After last week’s podium finish, it was Jérémie Beyou’s turn to cross the line on Thursday night, followed this Friday by Paul Meilhat. On his arrival at the pontoon, Jérémie spoke of his 4th place as a victory, and we can indeed say that he had a good race, even if, given the size of his project, his objective was to win. The weather in the south was fatal for him, with a very big break between the frontrunners and his group, and that’s when he missed the right wagon.

He still managed to stay mobilized to finish first in the chasing pack, and we’re not talking about just anyone, as he was up against some very sharp sailors. He could just as easily have finished ninth, because it was a tight pack for a long time, so well done to him for winning this match, but he’ll have to come back for the win!

As for Paul, 5th place is a great result. I think that a top 5 finish was one of his objectives, bearing in mind that his project, whether in terms of team or resources, was not as big as those of Charlie, Yoann, Jérémie or Thomas Ruyant. It took him a while to get into the game and gain confidence with his new foils, as he passed Good Hope in ninth place, but after that he mastered the southern seas and the climb back up the Atlantic superbly.

What’s quite striking when you hear their reactions at the finish, is that they all talk about the intensity of the race, which they hadn’t experienced at such a level until now. This was particularly true of this group of hunters. Jérémie, for example, has always been side by side with a competitor, for a long time with Nico, then with Thomas, Boris (Herrmann), Sam (Goodchild), Paul. They’ve always been in speed tests, never had a break, which must have been particularly hard on the nerves, even if, on the other hand, it must have eased the loneliness a little.It’s also amazing to see how different this group’s experience of the Vendée Globe was from that of the frontrunners, who, as they said, were rather spared the depressions. And that proved true right up to the end: the leading trio arrived in 5-10 knots of wind, flat seas, plenty of sunshine, while behind them, they arrived in the front. They’ve been experiencing opposite conditions for a month and a half, which also explains why the boats behind have all suffered a lot, as we saw again this week with Sam tearing his mainsail. In strong winds, when the pilot stalls and causes a forced gybe, it can quickly cause a lot of damage.

It’s also clear that for the race direction, managing the arrivals is very complicated. It was already hot on Thursday night for Jérémie, who had 40 knots almost all the way to the finish. Crossing the line is becoming dangerous, and that’s why the DC has set up the “storm line” for Paul and until Sunday, which is further offshore and bigger. In these conditions, it’s a real challenge to get the shore crew on board, lower the sails and enter the channel. It’s also going to be a tense exercise for the others, starting with Nico, who arrives on Friday night.As for the battle for the places of honor, nothing’s done yet, in my opinion, between Thomas, Justine and Sam for 7th place, they’re within fifty miles of each other this Friday afternoon. They’re going to have strong winds towards the end, so we’re going to have to master our trajectories and make clean maneuvers, because you can quickly lose miles if you miss one. In any case, Justine should finish first woman and, if she stays ahead of Sam, first boat of the previous generation, which would be quite a performance for a first Vendée Globe.

What impressed me most of all was her consistency: she’s always clocked up good times and made good trajectories. Last year, she showed with her northerly option on the Jacques Vabre that she was capable of attacking and wasn’t afraid to face the elements. She confirmed that she was right for the Vendée Globe and that she had guts.

Behind her, the fact of the day is that Sam Davies has decided to brake. This morning, I routed Clarisse (Crémer), Benjamin (Dutreux) and Sam (see picture above), I had set an upper limit of 40 knots of wind, there was no route for Sam to get to Les Sables d’Olonne without having less than 40 knots. She might have tried something if victory or a place on the podium had been at stake, but she was in real danger of going to the dogs. Her decision to go on stand-by was the right one, and there’s no debate about that. Now, it must be very frustrating for her, because we’re not talking about an eight-hour difference at the finish, she has to let the depression pass and find another window to arrive safely.For Benjamin and Clarisse, it’s different, firstly because there’s a 10th place to go for, and a top 10 finish or not isn’t the same thing, and secondly because it should pass. Now they’re at the limit, because they’re arriving on Sunday in conditions where the wind is only going to get stronger, up to 35-40 knots, so they’d better not drag their feet. If they finish in the afternoon, I think they’ll be fine, but after that, I’m afraid it’ll be very complicated.

I wonder whether they’ll even be able to get into the channel. As far as I’m concerned, it’s going to be a closed door at Les Sables, as the organizers aren’t going to play it safe if the waves break. One solution could be, once they’ve crossed the line, to go to to La Rochelle to shelter them from the Ile de Ré. The outcome of their duel? Based on my routing today, I’ve got a two-hour lead in Benjamin’s favor, but here again, there’s still a lot to play for, with some tricky conditions and a gybe point to set north of Cape Finisterre… So the battle will go on right to the end, and it’s going to be interesting to follow!”